Friday, June 17, 2016

Battle for Europe: Merkel, EUCO vs. Orban, V4

         Europe is at a crossroads.  The migrant crisis is ugly, and it will get worse.  There is no "EU solution" in sight, member nations are too fragmented.  There are no universal EU values, despite Merkel's claim to divinity. The way of life and culture is much different in Western Europe than the central-eastern region. Leaders in the Mediterranean states do not believe in securing the borders or a culture to be defended; they consider that "xenophobic".  On the other side, the V4 nations fiercely defend the customs and traditions that they believe make their culture unique; they consider that "normal and natural".

         Something has to give, for this mass migration is not sustainable. Either the EU will break apart into smaller regional alliances or the EU will realize that the external border must be sealed and a meaningful deportation program must be implemented in order to save Schengen. The battle is upon us.

        In one corner stands EUCO, Merkel and states such as Italy and Greece. They do not view mass migration from the Middle East as a threat to their culture.  Any Paris or Cologne-type of attacks are considered collateral damage in quest of their legacy of "humanity".  They do not believe in denying entry, real deportation, or limits of any kind.  Their goal is a safe and legal transfer of migrants to Europe. Once here, their solution is to redistribute the migrants across all member states in an orderly fashion, which is not realistic or possible.

      The V4 nations, while looking to help true war refugees where they can, consider any first step to eliminating the chaos a secure border.  They believe the migrants should be denied entry and sent back before being allowed to roam.  Refugees could then apply for asylum outside of the EU.  Migrant quotas are viewed as a nonsense and infringement on their right to decide the make ups of their own countries. Additionally, they believe the redistribution quotas act as a magnet for more migrants to seek Europe.

        If Merkel and EUCO prevail, there will be endless migrants for years to come, eventually igniting the flames of a cultural war.  If Orban and the V4 are victorious, Italy and Greece will be forced to seal their borders or be sealed off themselves. Their OpenBorder manifesto without the ability to "wave-through" to others would have to be modified or they would be overrun. Germany, without the ability to shuffle migrants elsewhere, would demand limits from Merkel.

       This is the battle for the Soul of Europe.  East vs. West.  As often happens in sport, the one with the greatest will and resolve triumphs.  The next 4-6 months will determine the destiny of not only the EU, but Europe itself.  Defying Merkel on quotas could be the knock-out punch.

       Onward, V4....Fight like a Champion!

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