This writer has always viewed the PM of Czech Republic, Sobotka, as the weak link of the V4. Sure his rhetoric on the refugee quotas has been OK, but his actions seem to indicate his heart is in Brussels. He seems in awe of Angela Merkel and unable to stand up to her for the best interests of Czechs. He likes his job as PM, but also yearns to be accepted by the aristocracy in the EU.
Sobotka now says he will accept the poisonous deal with Turkey that Merkel negotiated on her own. Is he conceding outsourcing Czech migration policy to Merkel and Erdogan? Was his sudden about face on accepting more refugees a result of Merkel beating him down? Only he knows, but I would not be surprised if he backs down in a few days under pressure from Zeman, Babis, Chovanec, and many others, including the Czech people themselves, who want no part of Merkel's vision for Europe.
For now he claims this is a "one for one" swap, and that the Czech Republic will not accept anymore refugees than he previously committed under the prior schemes. But this is pure spin as I previously pointed out in my blog on March 8. Sobotka's math does not balance out.
Sobotka's record on refugee quotas is mixed. In 2015, he voted with Hungary and Slovakia to oppose the initial Merkel refugee quotas. However, they were outgunned by the EU, which mandated quotas for all. While Hungary and Slovakia challenged Merkel and refused the diktat, Sobotka meekly accepted. This is his style, talking tough for Czechs, but pleasing Brussels at the same time.
Sobotka's claim today is that this "one for one" deal will not change the number of refugees shuffled to Czech, but will only shift the point of origin from Greece to Turkey. But the agreement does not require the "old" migrants already here to exit; only new "Syrians" arriving in "Greece" can be exchanged for a new Syrian from Turkey. In other words, it is only one for one if you discount the migrants already here and already accounted for under the prior redistribution plan. Sobotka committed to 1691 of the migrants already here.
Therefore, if 300,000 new refugees via Turkey are to be distributed to member states, is there any doubt that the EU will not mandate again that all member states take their "fair share". In theory, this would mean 1691 "plus" the new quotas for Czech. Not exactly one for one.
There is no doubt Hungary, Slovakia and the new government in Poland will never accept this; they will rightfully defy the mandate as an infringement on their sovereignty. What will Sobotka do? Will he act as the leader of Czech Republic, keep his word of no more than previously committed, and join his fellow V4 nations in defying more EU refugee quotas? Or will he fall in line with Brussels and refuse to challenge their new mandates, thus committing Czechs to a limitless amount of new refugees at the mercy of Recep Erdogan?
Soon, we are about to find out where Sobotka's heart lies: Czech Republic or Brussels?
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