Well, put this writer down as a little surprised that both the EU and Turkey agreed to this deal. Quite frankly, if you have read my past analysis, I believe the deal to be a useless game of "musical chairs" vulnerable to abuse by the Turks. On one hand, Turkey claims they will not see an increase in migrants. Yet, the "one for one" swap only involves Syrians; and Turkey is said to be bound to take back all non-Syrian "irregulars". How can this not be an increase for Turkey, unless one uses Erdogan Math (or deceit).
On paper, Turkey did not achieve all that they wanted, but they did capture their highest goal: visa-free travel to Europe. They also will receive over six billion Euros for all of their trouble in sending over the migrants in the first place, plus more in future demands. Erdogan surely has to be disappointed in having only one chapter opened for future EU status (I thought this may have caused Turkey to balk) and no final mention of his "no fly zone". It could have been worse, although the visa-free travel for Turks is quite the gamble. I still believe it will not happen.
However, the deal is weak for Europe too. Even if this complicated "open border-hope to deport" scheme works out, as long as Greece and others insist on letting them in, the numbers will increase for Europe. There is a cap of 72,000 "one for one" Syrians that can be shuffled from Greece to Turkey to an EU member state (i.e. Migrant quotas). At the current pace of 3000 migrants per day, this equals about one months supply of the new refugees that enter Greece. With the border still not sealed, Greece will be overwhelmed and in the same boat very shortly. What then?
In addition, the deal does not cover the 1.5 million migrants here already and the other new arrivals that enter somewhere "other than Greece". Last Saturday, over one thousand migrants arrived in Italy from Libya. The smugglers and migrants do not sleep nor do they attend EU Summits, they just find the weak spots. No cute gimmicks will work without sealing the EU border and having the
will and determination to keep it secured. Sooner or later, there must be a pushback.
So why did the Visegrad4 leaders not veto the deal? One cannot imagine that Poland, Hungary or Slovakia can be thrilled with the prospect of 75 million Turks with easy access to Europe. The V4 knows this pact with Erdogan will not work, which is why they may be saving their fight for another day. In 2-3 months the EU will be back at the bottom of the Feris Wheel again. Merkel's deal with Turkey will have failed and once again Europe will be flooded with a new wave from somewhere. At that point, Merkel will push for what has always been her signature EU solution: a permanent and binding refugee redistribution plan for all EU members. Merkel has never been about limits or deportation; her vision for Europe is limitless migrants with endless quotas. Deep down, she knows Germany cannot handle it alone, but she does think the EU can, no matter what the cost.
My sense is that Viktor Orban knows he can veto EU membership for Turkey at any time (it just takes one) and that he is saving his ammunition for the quota battle. He knows it is coming. This is where he and the V4 states will take their stand. For this battle for the Soul of Europe will decide the future of the EU and Merkel. If she prevails, multiculturalism will triumph and Merkel will continue to move Europe towards the UN-type vision she believes in. Defy Merkel and her era will end; the borders will have to be closed, with or without Greece, and Europe can move onto Plan B.
The stakes are high. Game On Visegrad. Your people are counting on you and they expect you to answer the bell to fight to save their culture and their way of life. Be strong and others will follow your lead to rescue a Continent in Chaos. A new Era is emerging and it points to Central/Eastern Europe. Do you have what it takes?
Good night and Good luck
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