Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Merkel integration plan for refugees: More empty talk of FUTURE promises

         Angela Merkel is consistent.  If one looks back to September of 2015, she really has not changed her position on the refugee crisis.  Despite all her confusing rhetoric, Merkel does not believe in limits or securing the EU border. Ultimately, her "European solution" entailed welcoming a limitless number of refugees to be spread across the EU via a binding and permanent refugee redistribution scheme. This was (and still is) her vision for Europe.  Thankfully, Viktor Orban and the V4 saw otherwise and did not share Berlin's enthusiasm to meddle in the makeup of their countries.

         Merkel has also developed another troublesome habit of proclaiming future promises she knows will never come to fruition in order to temporarily satisfy her critics at home.  After the Cologne sexual attacks, Merkel quickly started her spin on deporting.  Many cheered as Merkel's words seemed tough.  But deep down, she knew deportation was virtually impossible given the legal hurdles in Germany and the many home countries that would simply refuse to take their citizens back.  Today, three months after Cologne, how is that policy of deportation working out?  Merkel also discussed deporting the economic migrants, but nothing meaningful has followed.

         A few months ago, Merkel claimed the refugees would go back home with peace in Syria.  However, the economic migrants are still coming in full force and they are not fleeing war but seeking out the EU states that offer the best benefits.  How would ending the war in Syria persuade these economic migrants to go home?
       
         Today, Germany is floating the idea that if the refugees do not integrate and learn the German language that they will lose their "residency", whatever that means.  However, this promise would only be measured in three years, just about the time most people would have forgotten about that proposal; just as they have forgotten about the deportation of the Cologne attackers.  Moreover, who would be the judge as to whether a refugee has been "assimilated" and just who would determine what that means? The UN? Merkel? The Greens? Me?  Will learning the language mean fluency or being satisfied with the language skills of a first grader?  After all, my limited Czech allows me to eat, but I could hardly flourish in my profession there.  One can see where this is going?  Nowhere, and Merkel knows this.

         She is buying time, giving a false hope to Germans that she is fighting for limits, reductions, and a secure border.  Yet, she has been saying most of these things for months, while also working behind closed doors to make sure it does not materialize.  She has neither the will nor the courage to deport or secure the EU border.

        Whether in Greece or Italy, the migrants are still coming and the EU borders are still open.  Is Merkel buying time with FUTURE promises that have little chance at working in order to distract others from doing what is needed now, securing the EU border? She may be doing just that in an effort to force all EU members into accepting refugee quotas as the "only" choice to solve the crisis.  What other card does she have left since she believes securing the borders "is not my Europe?"

     This would be a mistake and would guarantee limitless migrants and endless quotas.  Western Europe is already struggling with Muslims who reject the culture, breeding no-go zones and Home-Grown terrorism.  How prudent is it to add a million-plus undocumented Muslim migrants to this volatile mix?  Many of these young migrants, often without parents, will be easy prey for radicalization from the criminal gang syndicates.

      The V4 and CEE states must not only defy Merkel on this, but they also must realize that they will have to take the lead in order to seal the border and rescue a Continent in Chaos.  For Merkel is determined to do her "damned duty" on the refugees to force her vision on Europe.  After years of being the subjects of Berlin, its up to the Visegrad4 to answer the bell and to show Merkel the door.

       Good night and Good luck!

   

     

 

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Turkey deal passes EU: What next?

      Well, put this writer down as a little surprised that both the EU and Turkey agreed to this deal.  Quite frankly, if you have read my past analysis, I believe the deal to be a useless game of "musical chairs" vulnerable to abuse by the Turks.  On one hand, Turkey claims they will not see an increase in migrants.  Yet, the "one for one" swap only involves Syrians; and Turkey is said to be bound to take back all non-Syrian "irregulars".  How can this not be an increase for Turkey, unless one uses Erdogan Math (or deceit).

     On paper, Turkey did not achieve all that they wanted, but they did capture their highest goal: visa-free travel to Europe.  They also will receive over six billion Euros for all of their trouble in sending over the migrants in the first place, plus more in future demands.  Erdogan surely has to be disappointed in having only one chapter opened for future EU status (I thought this may have caused Turkey to balk) and no final mention of his "no fly zone".  It could have been worse, although the visa-free travel for Turks is quite the gamble.  I still believe it will not happen.

     However, the deal is weak for Europe too.  Even if this complicated "open border-hope to deport" scheme works out, as long as Greece and others insist on letting them in, the numbers will increase for Europe.  There is a cap of 72,000 "one for one" Syrians that can be shuffled from Greece to Turkey to an EU member state (i.e. Migrant quotas).  At the current pace of 3000 migrants per day, this equals about one months supply of the new refugees that enter Greece.  With the border still not sealed, Greece will be overwhelmed and in the same boat very shortly.  What then?

      In addition, the deal does not cover the 1.5 million migrants here already and the other new arrivals that enter somewhere "other than Greece". Last Saturday, over one thousand migrants arrived in Italy from Libya.  The smugglers and migrants do not sleep nor do they attend EU Summits, they just find the weak spots.  No cute gimmicks will work without sealing the EU border and having the
will and determination to keep it secured.  Sooner or later, there must be a pushback.

      So why did the Visegrad4 leaders not veto the deal?  One cannot imagine that Poland, Hungary or Slovakia can be thrilled with the prospect of 75 million Turks with easy access to Europe. The V4 knows this pact with Erdogan will not work, which is why they may be saving their fight for another day.  In 2-3 months the EU will be back at the bottom of the Feris Wheel again.  Merkel's deal with Turkey will have failed and once again Europe will be flooded with a new wave from somewhere.  At that point, Merkel will push for what has always been her signature EU solution: a permanent and binding refugee redistribution plan for all EU members.  Merkel has never been about limits or deportation; her vision for Europe is limitless migrants with endless quotas.  Deep down, she knows Germany cannot handle it alone, but she does think the EU can, no matter what the cost.

      My sense is that Viktor Orban knows he can veto EU membership for Turkey at any time (it just takes one) and that he is saving his ammunition for the quota battle.  He knows it is coming.  This is where he and the V4 states will take their stand.  For this battle for the Soul of Europe will decide the future of the EU and Merkel.  If she prevails, multiculturalism will triumph and Merkel will continue to move Europe towards the UN-type vision she believes in.  Defy Merkel and her era will end; the borders will have to be closed, with or without Greece, and Europe can move onto Plan B.

      The stakes are high.  Game On Visegrad.  Your people are counting on you and they expect you to answer the bell to fight to save their culture and their way of life.  Be strong and others will follow your lead to rescue a Continent in Chaos.  A new Era is emerging and it points to Central/Eastern Europe.  Do you have what it takes?

       Good night and Good luck

   

Friday, March 18, 2016

EU Turkey Pact: First thought on first day

    The deal is not sealed yet, but don't be surprised if Turkey themselves throw a fit and walk out on Friday.  Cyprus is not about to agree to grant future EU membership to a country that it is occupied by, nor that refuses to even recognize Cyprus as a country.  Point six will have to be modified or Cyprus will kill the deal. Erdogan will not be happy (but this writer would rejoice).

    But my initial thoughts, noting the details are not final yet:

1.  Will Greece actually forcefully deport the migrants back to Turkey against their will?  I am skeptical.  Moreover, deporting is very hard and tricky.  We have heard this talk before from Merkel (after sex assaults in Cologne) and Sweden.  How is that going?  Exactly, it's not.  Not sure I see the logic of keeping border open and hoping on deportation instead of sealing border to begin with.

2.  Deal only covers "future irregulars" that arrive "only in Greece".  What is the plan for the million+ already here?  Smugglers won't give up, neither will economic migrants.  Today, 2500 new migrants entered Italy via Libya.  What is the plan for this new wave?  Endless refugee quotas?

3.  Balkan Route must remain closed to guard against a Greece repeat of "wave-through".  However, Merkel is opposed to this closure.  Will the V4 and CEE continue to defy her and heavy EU pressure?

4.  VISA liberalization for Turks traveling to Europe.  Turkey is a large Islamic state that has housed jihadists and 25,000 smugglers.  This is a bad idea for the security of Europe. Has The Blowback of this reckless policy been discussed?

5.  Future EU membership for Erdogan and Turkey.  NATO is held hostage by a tyrant from a decision made in 1952.  Turkey as a member state will change Europe now and forever.  Is this the EU wish for their future generations? Is Turkey their vision for Europe? I hope not.

6.  Why all these impractical hoops to jump through? Why not seal the border as a EU solution and allow individual states to voluntarily choose how many (if any) and who they wish to take from the camps in Turkey. The "open border-migrant musical chairs" scheme is mind boggling not to mention counter productive.

      Friday will be interesting, we shall know more tommorow.  Let's hope a few brave European patriots fight to save the soul of Europe.  Reject this misguided deal with Turkey and move on to Plan B with or without The Queen Bee Merkel.

Friday, March 11, 2016

Czech PM Sobotka: Beaten down by Merkel?

     This writer has always viewed the PM of Czech Republic, Sobotka, as the weak link of the V4.  Sure his rhetoric on the refugee quotas has been OK, but his actions seem to indicate his heart is in Brussels.  He seems in awe of Angela Merkel and unable to stand up to her for the best interests of Czechs. He likes his job as PM, but also yearns to be accepted by the aristocracy in the EU.

      Sobotka now says he will accept the poisonous deal with Turkey that Merkel negotiated on her own.  Is he conceding outsourcing Czech migration policy to Merkel and Erdogan? Was his sudden about face on accepting more refugees a result of Merkel beating him down?  Only he knows, but I would not be surprised if he backs down in a few days under pressure from Zeman, Babis, Chovanec, and many others, including the Czech people themselves, who want no part of Merkel's vision for Europe.

       For now he claims this is a "one for one" swap, and that the Czech Republic will not accept anymore refugees than he previously committed under the prior schemes.  But this is pure spin as I previously pointed out in my blog on March 8.  Sobotka's math does not balance out.

      Sobotka's record on refugee quotas is mixed.  In 2015, he voted with Hungary and Slovakia to oppose the initial Merkel refugee quotas. However, they were outgunned by the EU, which mandated quotas for all. While Hungary and Slovakia challenged Merkel and refused the diktat, Sobotka meekly accepted.  This is his style, talking tough for Czechs, but pleasing Brussels at the same time.

      Sobotka's claim today is that this "one for one" deal will not change the number of refugees shuffled to Czech, but will only shift the point of origin from Greece to Turkey.  But the agreement does not require the "old" migrants already here to exit; only new "Syrians" arriving in "Greece" can be exchanged for a new Syrian from Turkey.  In other words, it is only one for one if you discount the migrants already here and already accounted for under the prior redistribution plan.  Sobotka committed to 1691 of the migrants already here.

      Therefore, if 300,000 new refugees via Turkey are to be distributed to member states, is there any doubt that the EU will not mandate again that all member states take their "fair share".  In theory, this would mean 1691 "plus" the new quotas for Czech.  Not exactly one for one.

       There is no doubt Hungary, Slovakia and the new government in Poland will never accept this; they will rightfully defy the mandate as an infringement on their sovereignty.  What will Sobotka do? Will he act as the leader of Czech Republic, keep his word of no more than previously committed, and join his fellow V4 nations in defying more EU refugee quotas?  Or will he fall in line with Brussels and refuse to challenge their new mandates, thus committing Czechs to a limitless amount of new refugees at the mercy of Recep Erdogan?

      Soon, we are about to find out where Sobotka's heart lies:  Czech Republic or Brussels?

     



   

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Turkey Pipeline to Europe: Merkel deal guarantees endless quotas, limitless migrants


      Despite her meekly appearance at times, Angela Merkel is smart, cunning and relentless. While this writer has disagreed with her at every step regarding the refugee crisis, one can never underestimate her resolve.

       The Merkel-Erdogan deal is a catastrophe and nothing more than a slick maneuver to deceive Germans, Europeans, and the world that she is confronting the crisis through a European-Turkish solution that involves "limits" and "deportations".  Dig Deep into the details and one will find out otherwise.  This deal is nothing more than "migrant shuffling" that indirectly achieves her original goal of limitless refugees and a permanent redistribution plan for all Member states.  There is a reason Erdogan is smiling.

       Detail #1.  There is nothing in the deal that secures the external EU border in Greece, which openly states that they will not prevent illegal migrants from reaching their coast.  Turkey claims they will take back "irregulars" but is this realistic or just spin.  For instance, will Greece use force to deport illegals who resist going back to Turkey?  In addition, the objective of returning illegals back to Turkey only pertains to "new" migrants entering Greece (not elsewhere, like Italy) and not the million+ already here roaming the streets of Europe.  What does Greece plan to do with the majority of migrants who arrive with no identification claiming to be Syrian?

       Detail #2.  The "One In One Out" scheme is highly misleading.  Any "new Syrian" refugee returned from "Greece" (not elsewhere) to Turkey would trigger Turkey sending an "old migrant" already in the refugee camp to an EU "Member Nation" based on their redistribution formula.  One can read right through this.  Basically, Greece sends a "new" migrant that reaches their shore back to Turkey which in turn sends an old migrant to an EU nation (not Greece).  In effect, you are taking endless migrants from Greece, and in a very indirect way, transferring them to EU member states.  Spin it as you wish, but this is the permanent refugee redistribution quota scheme that Merkel has been banking on for some time.  It will never end.  Moreover, it is quite an incentive for Turkey to get as many new migrants to Greece in order to unload their existing stock on Europe.  Think about it, for each new migrant received from Greece, Erdogan gets to deport them back to their original country while unloading an equal amount already in his camps to Europe.

       Detail #3 and #5.  Easing visa restrictions and eventual EU membership for Turkey.  Are these the values Merkel speaks of when she refers to "my Europe"?  Erdogan, along with Saudi Arabia, helped destabilize Syria, bombed the Kurds fighting IS, and tolerated a network of 25,000 smugglers in his country flooding the EU with migrants.  Now Merkel in her quest for an "ever closer union" wants solidarity with a tyrant.  Multiculturalism is a problem for Western Europe; granting an Islamic state, who turned a blind eye to Jihadists crossing their borders, access to the EU is a ticking time bomb.

      Detail #6.  A resolution to establish a safe or "no fly zone" in Syria.  This would greatly assist Erdogan, the Saudis, and their Islamic extremists in regime change in Syria.  How would a Syria with a Muslim Brotherhood-type government be good for Europe or Syria?

         The deal is a nightmare for Europe and a windfall for Erdogan, but it has not been formally accepted yet.  However, Merkel is acting as if it is a done deal before the elections in Germany this weekend.  Her hope is to convince German voters that she is solving the problem with tough talk of securing the borders, limits, and deportations.  In reality, the consequences will usher in a new era of multicultural mayhem for Europe with a limitless stream of migrants and permanent refugee distribution mechanism for all Member states.  This may be Merkel's vision, but she is not the sovereign of Europe.  The Visegrad4 and CEE states have their own vision and they will continue to go their own way to preserve their way of life.

         Merkel is selling Europe's Soul for the vanity of her legacy.  The V4 and CEE states must defy her to restore order to a Continent in Chaos.  Solidarity is a nice word, but not worth the price of forfeiting ones culture.

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

EU Refugee Crisis: Merkel and Greece must realize European Culture is not theirs to just "throw away"

       The battle for the heart and soul of Europe has begun.  The gloves are off, solidarity is dead, and the EU is fighting for its life.  This was not how it was planned by Germany's Angela Merkel who finds herself increasingly isolated from the rest of Europe.
     
      The recent shocking violence by migrants against a sovereign Macedonia border illustrates the deep division of "values" inside the EU.  In one corner you have Angela Merkel, Greece, and the various Mediterranean states.  They do not believe in borders, culture, or any limits on refugees.  Greece and Italy surrendered their border to the point of negligence.  They waived through, with no checks at all, undocumented migrants from violent regions well-known for persecuting non-Muslims.

       Greece likes to talk about "compassion", but what type of values sacrifice the security and well-being of your own citizens under the false flag of "humanity".  The blowback has come, as witnessed by the sexual assaults in Cologne and elsewhere, and the Paris attacks carried out by terrorists who traveled as refugees through the porous borders.

      Merkel refuses to set any limits and actually encouraged the migrants to come to Germany.  Yet, she now wants to force others to take some of those migrants they did not ask for.  Merkel's vision of Europe, which her legacy demands, is an unlimited amount of migrants and a permanent and endless refugee redistribution scheme for all in the EU.

       Greece, Merkel, and the Mediterranean states believe the European Culture is not special and can be sacrificed for the false God of multiculturalism, which has failed miserably in Western Europe.  Open Borders and no limits; this is Merkel Vision.  On this, she is intolerant to any other view and believes it to be immoral to secure the borders.  This, she said, "is not her Europe".

        But Merkel is not the sovereign of Europe, and not all of "her subjects" worship to her multicultural theology.  The Visegrad4 nations led by Viktor Orban of Hungary took a lonely, bold step early on to challenge Merkel.  They have always insisted that securing the border and limiting the inflow was a must first step for any solution.  There would be help for the true war refugees, but insisted that the process be orderly and processed outside the EU border.  If Greece refuses to secure the border, putting all Europeans at risk, the V4 believes they have the moral duty to help the Balkans secure their border from Greece. The V4 put the safety of their citizens first.  They were not interested in legacies masked in vanity or medals of honor from the media.

       While wishing Germany and others "luck" with their multicultural experiments, the V4 nations saw the results and said "no thanks".  They fought to protect their people, their culture, and their way of life.  These are the values that make countries great and priceless.

            Two vastly different values and beliefs inside the EU are about to collide head-on, something will have to give.  The EU meetings this spring will determine who leads Europe and who defines the continents values.  Many of Merkel's former allies, like Austria, have defected and lost confidence in her. Merkel is determined to keep the EU border open and to force the V4 countries to accept refugee quotas, multiculturalism, and no limits.

         The V4 and CEE will defy her, they have no other choice.  The areas that bought into Merkel's naivety early on are melting down, their citizens are scared and tense for their future.  They are looking for a strong hand to bring back order to a continent in chaos.  This is the battle; defeat Merkel on refugee quotas and Merkel will have no choice but to secure the border and begin meaningful deportations.

    Merkel is not too big to fall nor does she have a monopoly on the purpose and values of Europe.  Merkel has failed to answer the bell for Europe; now the V4 will fight to save her Soul.  Good night, Good Luck, and Stay Strong.

   




   

   
   

   

   


   

   

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Macedonia Border Violence; A Preview of Merkel Vision

    * 3-11-2016 update:  Merkel wants to give billions of dollars to the two nations that have flooded Europe with dangerous, unknown men from violent regions, Greece and Turkey.  They along with Merkel have exposed all Europeans to risks no one would dare expose their daughters to. Yet Merkel continues her bitterness and vengeful attitude towards those who are actually protecting Europe.  Seems as if non-EU Macedonia deserves EU support in defending Europe from the ineptness and vanity of EU Greece.  Interesting.  Enjoy original article below written first of March*

     Disgusted, enraged, shocked are the words to describe the feelings from watching the mob violence today at the Macedonia-Greece border.  The migrants are not some merry band of Dora's Explorers as the manipulative media portrays them. Watch the video and judge yourself.  They are healthy young men from violent regions and they have no intention of respecting the culture or laws of Europe.

      Mostly Afghan economic migrants that have no business in Europe, they tried to impose their aggressive will on Macedonia to dictate their demands by taking a battering ram to the border wall.  The courageous border guards repelled them with tear gas, forcing them to flee.  But they will be back tommorow with support from Merkel, the UN, and their tools in the media screaming "tolerance and humanity".  Yet what type of values sacrifice the safety of your own citizens under the false flag of humanity?

      While Europe melts down in mayhem, Angela Merkel remains an obstacle, obsessed with her legacy and delusions of grandeur.  She attempts to mollify with useless spin that talks of deportation, deals with Erdogan, and "we can do it solidarity".  In reality, she has one vision only and that's her own.  This writer has said for six months that Merkel has no intention of securing the border, migrant limits, or deportation.  She has no will or intention to do this.  Merkel's only plan is unlimited refugees via an endless refugee redistribution scheme for the rest of Europe.  The V4 must defy her on this to save Europe's Soul.  They have no other choice.

    There are many questions that Merkel, EUCO, and Greece must be held accountable for.  Why expose your citizens and others to this negligence?  Did they not see the chaos and danger of allowing undocumented men, from regions well-known for persecuting non-Muslims, to just roam the streets of Europe?  This outrage of Open Borders for unknown migrants is a false humanity and an act of pure vanity with no regard to the consequences of their actions on others.

    There is only one solution now and this involves sidelining Merkel and Greece from the debate.  They have failed to answer the bell so others will choose for them:

1.  Greece will not turn the boats back, this is clear.  However, their border is the EU border and their weakness puts others at risk.  Viktor Orban and the V4 need to follow through with their border closing in Macedonia and Bulgaria.  In other words, Greece must be isolated and shut off.  Sounds tough, but this is Greece's choice.  They made their own bed when they chose to surrender their border without a fight.

2.  All the economic migrants must be sent home, forcefully if necessary.  Yes forcefully.  One cannot allow the mob to dictate border/migration policy.  Force, backed by strength and justice, must prevail and they will have to leave or Europe will burn.  Migrants prey on weakness.  It will not be pretty, but
a tough message must be sent to curb the demand.  The Australian government did it and so did Eisenhower, who deported 400,000 illegals back to Mexico (the other 600,000 self-deported once they got wind of the rough trip back home).  It can be done; it must be done.

3.  If the Afghanastan government or Africa balks at receiving back their citizens, the EU states must cut off all aid to these countries until they adjust their attitude.  They will get the message and will have no choice but to relent.

4.  Turkey and the smugglers would be rendered powerless if the EU shuts their door to Greece.  Sure, Greece would be miserable for a bit, but life there would be difficult if not intolerable.  Word travels fast among migrants and more would go home, stay home, or go back to the camps in the Middle East.  Europe could then help with funds to improve the conditions in those camps. True war refugees need to be close to home, not in Europe, to get the most efficient assistance.

      It did not have to be this way.  Merkel encouraged all to come and Greece just waved them through.  The results have not been pretty and Europeans have become second class citizens, exposed to unnecessary dangers.  If the borders were secured from the start, the true refugees from Syria could have been vetted and identified in Turkey in an orderly and safe fashion.

      Instead, things will have to be done the hard way with force and much angst and hardship.  But there is no other choice.  Merkel, Greece, and Juncker failed Europe; no longer can they hold the continent hostage to their naive and dangerous fantasies.

       New leaders have emerged from the East to save a Continent in Chaos.  The time has come for the Visegrad4, they are the future.  The Era of Merkel and Old Europe is over.  Their Vision has been rejected.