Europe is at a crossroads. The migrant crisis is ugly, and it will get worse. There is no "EU solution" in sight, member nations are too fragmented. There are no universal EU values, despite Merkel's claim to divinity. The way of life and culture is much different in Western Europe than the central-eastern region. Leaders in the Mediterranean states do not believe in securing the borders or a culture to be defended; they consider that "xenophobic". On the other side, the V4 nations fiercely defend the customs and traditions that they believe make their culture unique; they consider that "normal and natural".
Something has to give, for this mass migration is not sustainable. Either the EU will break apart into smaller regional alliances or the EU will realize that the external border must be sealed and a meaningful deportation program must be implemented in order to save Schengen. The battle is upon us.
In one corner stands EUCO, Merkel and states such as Italy and Greece. They do not view mass migration from the Middle East as a threat to their culture. Any Paris or Cologne-type of attacks are considered collateral damage in quest of their legacy of "humanity". They do not believe in denying entry, real deportation, or limits of any kind. Their goal is a safe and legal transfer of migrants to Europe. Once here, their solution is to redistribute the migrants across all member states in an orderly fashion, which is not realistic or possible.
The V4 nations, while looking to help true war refugees where they can, consider any first step to eliminating the chaos a secure border. They believe the migrants should be denied entry and sent back before being allowed to roam. Refugees could then apply for asylum outside of the EU. Migrant quotas are viewed as a nonsense and infringement on their right to decide the make ups of their own countries. Additionally, they believe the redistribution quotas act as a magnet for more migrants to seek Europe.
If Merkel and EUCO prevail, there will be endless migrants for years to come, eventually igniting the flames of a cultural war. If Orban and the V4 are victorious, Italy and Greece will be forced to seal their borders or be sealed off themselves. Their OpenBorder manifesto without the ability to "wave-through" to others would have to be modified or they would be overrun. Germany, without the ability to shuffle migrants elsewhere, would demand limits from Merkel.
This is the battle for the Soul of Europe. East vs. West. As often happens in sport, the one with the greatest will and resolve triumphs. The next 4-6 months will determine the destiny of not only the EU, but Europe itself. Defying Merkel on quotas could be the knock-out punch.
Onward, V4....Fight like a Champion!
Friday, June 17, 2016
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Daily Thoughts: Nation States, not the EU, are best equipped to solve the Migrant Crisis
Today, EUCO came out with another predictable and disappointing "EU solution" that contains nothing new. When they speak of controlling the border and stopping illegal crossings, the EU is not talking about reducing or stopping the flow of migrants to Europe. Instead, they seek an organized, legal method to transfer the migrants straight to Europe. From there, the EU will develop "hot spots" and a permanent "redistribution quota scheme" to distribute the migrants among member states. There will be harsh financial sanctions on those countries who refuse the quotas.
There are many problems with this, including the refugees themselves who will quickly then migrate to wealthier states like Germany. There will be terrorists posing as refugees, and many, once in, will simply vanish. But the biggest problem is that it will provide a huge incentive for migrants worldwide to "just get to Europe". Once granted entry, it is almost impossible to deport. This solution will be rightly rejected by the V4 and would guarantee endless migrants for years to come. This will tear Europe apart both financially and culturally.
The Visegrad4 and CEE nations view the "EU solution" as a nonsense; they have also lost all confidence in the EU to secure the border and deny entry. So naturally, they are taking action themselves and having great success. The decreased migrant demand for Greece was due to the actions of member states, without the EU's blessing or assistance. The Balkan countries and Macedonia closed the migrant pipeline from Greece to Germany. The migrants have no desire to be stuck in Greece, prompting some to go home. Many others are opting to stay in Turkey or they try their luck at the porous Italian border. Austria, despite the frenzied protests of both Merkel and Italy, may soon take matters into their own hands by closing their border with Italy; thus leaving the Italians with the choice of limiting entry or being overwhelmed with migrants.
This unilateral and necessary action by member states will infuriate Merkel, Renzi, Tsipras and EUCO. This will either force Italy and the EU to secure the border or it may cause the EU to break apart. Either way, the EU is incapable of solving the crisis under the flag of solidarity, since solidarity means Merkel's Way. The solution will come from Nation States coming together, as they did in the Balkans, to solve the crisis unilaterally. Nation States will always be more effective at solving migration simply because they have more at stake than the unelected clerks safely sipping coffee in some office in Brussels.
There is no migrant crisis in the V4 or Balkans because they defied EU orders and acted unilaterally and in the best interests of their people. As a result, their resolve benefited all, including Germany and Greece. Nation states get things done, while the EU Golem pontificates about false values. Europe's culture, hopes, and dreams lay in the hands of the nation states, not the EU. The future leaders of Europe will emerge from the East, not from a dying West.
Sunday, June 12, 2016
An EU solution to Refugee Crisis? Why it may not be possible until the EU breaks apart
September 2015: After returning home from the Czech republic, I was shocked at the events taking place in Greece, Italy and Germany. One could see nine months ago that this migrant crisis was a complete chaos and not sustainable in the long run. Surely, I said to myself, Europe would have to secure the border soon, for no sane leaders would continue to allow millions of undocumented migrants from very violent cultures to continue to just pour into Europe with little if any vetting. I was wrong.
Shortly after, my OpEd (the pinned tweet on my Twitter account) "The V4 nations are dealing with the refugee crisis properly", appeared in the Pittsburgh Tribune Review. It layed out the dangers of Merkel's policy and described the V4 plan to solve the crisis. Amazingly, almost a year later, the same article (with one minor change) could be written today. The point: nothing has really changed; the EU and Merkel have failed to secure the border in spite of Paris, Brussels, Cologne, terrorists posing as migrants, the rapes, fake passports, and smugglers controlling the Italy-Greece borders. The migrants are still coming and very few have been deported as promised. We are back to square one, except 2,000,000 have already arrived.
The question: Is it possible to solve the crisis with what Merkel describes as a "EU Solution"? With the current structure and make up of the EU, I do not believe it is.
The members that comprise the EU, their values and cultures, are too far apart to come up with an "EU solution". Merkel and Hungary's Viktor Orban are one example, and there are many more challenges ranging from vastly different economies to contrasting views on Islam and multiculturalism. However, the most glaring challenge is the total mismatch of cultures and beliefs of the Mediterranean States and the V4-CEE nations that make up the central-eastern European region.
The Med Club is made up of Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Malta and France. They demand entry for all that come and consider it immoral to secure the border. The Med Club cherishes multiculturalism and considers it intolerant to defend "European Culture"; they consider it "xenophobic" and a heresy to their God of Diversity. Their solution does not involve limits or reductions, but an endless redistribution scheme for the migrants to be shuffled to the other EU states.
The Visegrad 4 nations of Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Czech republic have a completely different vision. They view securing the border as a must first step to any solution that protects Europe and helps the true war refugees. They want hard limits, reductions, and have no desire for the way of life of France or Belgium. They consider their culture unique and priceless and are willing to fight to preserve it. They see the results of the failed multiculturalism in Western Europe and do not think Muslim migrants are a fit for their peaceful and traditional societies. Their solution is to secure the border and to decide for themselves who and how many refugees they take. They view migrant quotas as an invitation for more to come and a distraction from the real solution: a secure border.
How can there be an "EU solution" if Italy refuses to secure their border and deny entry? The migrants view this as an invitation to keep coming. However, the V4 will never accept migrant quotas nor should they. Where will all these migrants go? Italy and Merkel are relying on migrant quotas while the V4 advocates securing the border to stop the inflow. Neither side will compromise. Something has to give.
The EU must be broken up, it cannot function with such deeply-held contrasting beliefs. This can be done peacefully. Both regions cannot afford not to trade with each other. In fact, the level of animosity could well be reduced if separated. Both could then live with their own visions as they see fit. The Mediterranean States could continue to welcome migrants, using a redistribution scheme between themselves, instead of trying to force their vision on others.
Obviously, there would be details to work out. Italy would have to consider if their Open Border philosophy is sustainable without having Eastern Europe to wave-through migrants to. Austria would close their border with Italy, thus overwhelming Italy with migrants. Faced with this reality, Renzi may have a change of attitude, or Italians may throw him out of office.
Unless the border is secured, there will be no EU solution. The migrant crisis can be solved, but only with the breakup of the EU into smaller, less intrusive regional alliances that better reflect the values and beliefs of their people. As the EU has proven, bigger is not always better. Let the nation states of Europe solve the problem as the Balkans and Macedonia did in Greece without the EU's blessing; after all, who better to tackle the issue than the nation states with more at stake than some vain unelected bureaucrats in Brussels.
Never be afraid of change and controlling your own destiny.
Shortly after, my OpEd (the pinned tweet on my Twitter account) "The V4 nations are dealing with the refugee crisis properly", appeared in the Pittsburgh Tribune Review. It layed out the dangers of Merkel's policy and described the V4 plan to solve the crisis. Amazingly, almost a year later, the same article (with one minor change) could be written today. The point: nothing has really changed; the EU and Merkel have failed to secure the border in spite of Paris, Brussels, Cologne, terrorists posing as migrants, the rapes, fake passports, and smugglers controlling the Italy-Greece borders. The migrants are still coming and very few have been deported as promised. We are back to square one, except 2,000,000 have already arrived.
The question: Is it possible to solve the crisis with what Merkel describes as a "EU Solution"? With the current structure and make up of the EU, I do not believe it is.
The members that comprise the EU, their values and cultures, are too far apart to come up with an "EU solution". Merkel and Hungary's Viktor Orban are one example, and there are many more challenges ranging from vastly different economies to contrasting views on Islam and multiculturalism. However, the most glaring challenge is the total mismatch of cultures and beliefs of the Mediterranean States and the V4-CEE nations that make up the central-eastern European region.
The Med Club is made up of Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Malta and France. They demand entry for all that come and consider it immoral to secure the border. The Med Club cherishes multiculturalism and considers it intolerant to defend "European Culture"; they consider it "xenophobic" and a heresy to their God of Diversity. Their solution does not involve limits or reductions, but an endless redistribution scheme for the migrants to be shuffled to the other EU states.
The Visegrad 4 nations of Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Czech republic have a completely different vision. They view securing the border as a must first step to any solution that protects Europe and helps the true war refugees. They want hard limits, reductions, and have no desire for the way of life of France or Belgium. They consider their culture unique and priceless and are willing to fight to preserve it. They see the results of the failed multiculturalism in Western Europe and do not think Muslim migrants are a fit for their peaceful and traditional societies. Their solution is to secure the border and to decide for themselves who and how many refugees they take. They view migrant quotas as an invitation for more to come and a distraction from the real solution: a secure border.
How can there be an "EU solution" if Italy refuses to secure their border and deny entry? The migrants view this as an invitation to keep coming. However, the V4 will never accept migrant quotas nor should they. Where will all these migrants go? Italy and Merkel are relying on migrant quotas while the V4 advocates securing the border to stop the inflow. Neither side will compromise. Something has to give.
The EU must be broken up, it cannot function with such deeply-held contrasting beliefs. This can be done peacefully. Both regions cannot afford not to trade with each other. In fact, the level of animosity could well be reduced if separated. Both could then live with their own visions as they see fit. The Mediterranean States could continue to welcome migrants, using a redistribution scheme between themselves, instead of trying to force their vision on others.
Obviously, there would be details to work out. Italy would have to consider if their Open Border philosophy is sustainable without having Eastern Europe to wave-through migrants to. Austria would close their border with Italy, thus overwhelming Italy with migrants. Faced with this reality, Renzi may have a change of attitude, or Italians may throw him out of office.
Unless the border is secured, there will be no EU solution. The migrant crisis can be solved, but only with the breakup of the EU into smaller, less intrusive regional alliances that better reflect the values and beliefs of their people. As the EU has proven, bigger is not always better. Let the nation states of Europe solve the problem as the Balkans and Macedonia did in Greece without the EU's blessing; after all, who better to tackle the issue than the nation states with more at stake than some vain unelected bureaucrats in Brussels.
Never be afraid of change and controlling your own destiny.
Friday, June 10, 2016
New Domain: ravsreport.com
We have moved to ravsreport.com. We are still improving the site and moving articles but feel our initial start needed a fresher look. One step at a time, but we must keep moving forward.
Thanks
Bill
Thanks
Bill
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